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今天貿易戰的話題特別火。

感覺自從有了朋友圈之后，大家都變成了全球問題專家。

但轉來轉去的文章都是“貿易戰開打”、“中國反擊”這樣媒體不嫌事大的標題。

在得出貿易戰已經開始的結論之前，我們應當還原一下昨晚在白宮到底發生了什么。

我從白宮首頁上down下了昨晚特朗普在簽署行政備忘錄之前的演講全文，做了一些評論，分享給大家。

點擊文末的閱讀原文可以去白宮網站上看原文。

Diplomatic Room12:45 P.M. EDTTHE PRESIDENT:  Well, thank you everybody.  This hasbeen long in the making.  You’ve heard many, many speeches by me and talksby me, and interviews where I talk about unfair trade practices.  We’velost, over a fairly short period of time, 60,000 factories in our country —closed, shuttered, gone.  Six million jobs, at least, gone.  And nowthey’re starting to come back.  You see what’s happening with Chrysler,with Foxconn, with so many other companies wanting to come back into the UnitedStates.

（特朗普專門提到了富士康Foxconn，應該指的是去年下半年傳出富士康會在威斯康星投資一百億美元建LCD液晶屏廠的新聞。然而富士康還要登陸A股呢，一個是要它投資，一個是幫它融資，你說它會向著誰？）

But we have one particular problem.  And I view them as afriend; I have tremendous respect for President Xi.  We have a greatrelationship.  They’re helping us a lot in North Korea.  And that’sChina.

（特朗普提到在朝鮮事件上中國幫助了美國很多，之前所謂美國繞開中國和朝鮮接觸的說法應該是不成立的）

But we have a trade deficit, depending on the way you calculate,of $504 billion.  Now, some people would say it’s really $375billion.  Many different ways of looking at it, but any way you look atit, it is the largest deficit of any country in the history of our world. It’s out of control.We have a tremendous intellectual property theft situation goingon, which likewise is hundreds of billions of dollars.  And that’s on ayearly basis.  I’ve spoken to the President.  I’ve spoken torepresentatives of China.  We’ve been dealing with it very seriously.

（從貿易逆差說到知識產權問題，后面特別提到和中國領導人和代表都有溝通，雙方都在非常認真地對待此事。注意，這是第一次提到雙方在溝通。）

As you know, we’re renegotiating NAFTA.  We’ll see how thatturns out.  Many countries are calling to negotiate better trade dealsbecause they don’t want to have to pay the steel and aluminum tariffs. And we are negotiating with various countries — Mr. Lighthizer, Mr. Ross.

（映證了之前對鋼鐵和鋁產品征稅只是聲東擊西，先給一鞭子再豁免，為的是穩住其他貿易伙伴，再集中力量對付中國。川普這招666）

We are just starting a negotiation with the European Unionbecause they’ve really shut out our country to a large extent.  They havebarriers that — they can trade with us but we can’t trade with them. They’re very strong barriers.  They have very high tariffs.  Wedon’t.  It’s just not fair.NAFTA has been a very bad deal for the United States, but we’llmake it better or we’ll have to do something else.  The deal we have withSouth Korea is a very one-sided deal.  It’s a deal that has to be changed.

（背景補充：特朗普剛簽署了對韓國的貿易關稅豁免。）

So we have a lot of things happening.  But in particular,with China, we’re going to be doing a Section 301 trade action.  It couldbe about $60 billion but that’s really just a fraction of what we’re talkingabout.

（600億美元這個數字第一次出現，特朗普表示這還只是個開始。大部分媒體那些扎眼的標題都是從這里出來的。）

I’ve been speaking with the highest Chinese representatives,including the President, and I’ve asked them to reduce the trade deficitimmediately by $100 billion.  It’s a lot.  So that would be anywherefrom 25 percent, depending on the way you figure, to maybe something even morethan that.  But we have to do that.

（第二次提到和中國的溝通，包括領導人和代表。）

The word that I want to use is “reciprocal.”  When theycharge 25 percent for a car to go in, and we charge 2 percent for their car tocome into the United States, that’s not good.  That’s how China rebuiltitself.  The tremendous money that we’ve paid since the founding of theWorld Trade organization — which has actually been a disaster for us. It’s been very unfair to us.  The arbitrations are very unfair.  Thejudging has been very unfair.  And knowingly, we always have a minorityand it’s not fair.

（Reciprocal是互惠的意思，這個詞后面還會反復出現。特朗普直指中國進口汽車的高關稅，不過就算美國對中國進口汽車只征收2%的稅，進口量有多少？）

So we’re talking to World Trade, we’re talking to NAFTA, we’retalking to China, we’re talking to the European Union.  And I will say,every single one of them wants to negotiate.  And I believe that, in manycases — maybe all cases — we’ll end up negotiating a deal.

（每一次的溝通，不管是和NAFTA，中國，還是歐洲，最后都會協商一個deal！劃重點！協商一個deal才是最終目的?。?/p>

So we’ve spoken to China and we’re in the midst of a very largenegotiation.  We’ll see where it takes us.  But in the meantime, weare sending a Section 301 action.  I’ll be signing it right here, rightnow.  I’d like to ask Bob Lighthizer to say a few words about the 301 andwhere we are in that negotiation.

（重點來了！特朗普明確表示，正在和中國方面溝通，正在進行一個大型談判！所以現在動用301，只是為了給談判中加些砝碼?。?/p>

And we’re doing things for this country that should have beendone for many, many years.  We’ve had this abuse by many other countriesand groups of countries that were put together in order to take advantage ofthe United States, and we don’t want that to happen.  We’re not going tolet that happen.  It’s probably one of the reasons I was elected; maybeone of the main reasons.  But we’re not going to let that happen.

（廢話連篇）

We have, right now, an $800 billion trade deficit with theworld.  So think of that.  So let’s say we have 500 to 375, but let’ssay we have 500 with China, but we have 800 total with the world.  Thatwould mean that China is more than half.  So we’re going to get it takencare of.  And, frankly, it’s going to make us a much stronger, much richernation.

（美國貿易逆差一般是對中國的，這是事實，但減少逆差就能讓美國更強大更富有，哥們你確定嗎？如果沒有中國制造的諸多商品，你確定美國人民能過上更好的日子？）

The word is “reciprocal.”  That’s the word I want everyoneto remember.  We want reciprocal — mirror.  Some people call it amirror tariff or a mirror tax.  Just use the word reciprocal.  Ifthey charge us, we charge them the same thing.  That’s the way it’s got tobe.  That’s not the way it is.  For many, many years — for manydecades, it has not been that way.

（可能是覺得Reciprocal這個詞太復雜了，不符合他的用詞習慣，此處還用了一個根本不是同義詞的mirror。）

And I will say, the people we’re negotiating with — smilingly,they really agree with us.  I really believe they cannot believe they’vegotten away with this for so long.

（再次強調，美國在和各路人等談判協商。）

I’ll talk to Prime Minister Abe of Japan and others — great guy,friend of mine — and there will be a little smile on their face.  And thesmile is, “I can’t believe we’ve been able to take advantage of the UnitedStates for so long.”  So those days are over.

（很懷疑安倍的笑容會是在說，啊沒想到我們可以占美國這么久的便宜……他的笑容更可能會是幸災樂禍吧——啊當年美日貿易戰我們被搞得那么慘，現在也輪到中國了哈哈哈）

Ambassador Lighthizer, thank you.AMBASSADOR LIGHTHIZER:  Well, thank you very much, Mr.President.  First of all, for those of you who don’t know, Section 301 isa statute that gives substantial power, authority to the President to correctactions in certain circumstances where there’s unfair acts, policies, orpractices by our trading partners.

（現任貿易代表萊特希澤，一個強硬派，廢話不多，直接說明301調查的含義。）

In this case, the area is technology.  Technology isprobably the most important part of our economy.  There’s 44 millionpeople who work in high-tech knowledge areas.  No country has as muchtechnology-intensive industry as the United States.  And technology isreally the backbone of the future of the American economy.

（揭曉答案，真正貿易戰針對的是根本不是大宗商品，而是科技領域。因為中國的科技發展威脅到美國了。）

Given these problems, the President asked USTR to conduct astudy.  We conducted a thorough study.  We had hearings.  Wereviewed tens of thousands of pages of documents.  We talked to many, manybusiness people.  We had testimony, as I say.

（針對中國知識產權和科技領域的301調查其實是去年8月就開始的，迄今半年過去了，是時候得出結論了。）

And we concluded that, in fact, China does have a policy offorced technology transfer; of requiring licensing at less than economic value;of state capitalism, wherein they go in and buy technology in the United Statesin non-economic ways; and then, finally, of cyber theft.

（中國想在科技領域彎道超車，肯定得有些上不了臺面的招數啊。否則美國人會將科技領先的位置拱手相讓嗎？至少我去一些重點實驗室調研的時候，教授們也表示想走正規渠道從美國帶回些儀器來簡直是不可能的啊。）

The result of this has been that the President has analyzed it —we have a 200-page study which we will put out — and he has concluded that weshould put in place tariffs on appropriate products — we can explain later howwe concluded what products they are; that we would put investment restrictionson China with respect to high technology; and that we’ll file a WTO case. Because one of the actions here does involve a WTO violation.

（美國并沒有完全放棄WTO，還有一個case會在WTO體系下去投訴中國。）

This is an extremely important action, very significant and veryimportant for the future of the country, really, across industries.  And Iwould really like to thank you very much, Mr. President, for giving me theopportunity to work on it.

（呵呵。最后拍老板一下馬屁，感謝給工作啊。）

THE PRESIDENT:  Thank you very much, Bob.  SecretaryRoss.SECRETARY ROSS:  Intellectual property rights are ourfuture, and it’s no accident that in June of this year, the U.S. Patent andTrademark Office will issue its 10 millionth patent — 10 million patents. There’s no country in the history of the world that remotely approaches that.

（在科技領域更重要的是專利，是知識產權，這是美國目前的鎮國之寶了。）

So the steel and aluminum actions we’ve taken deal more or lesswith the present.  This action on intellectual property rights deals withthe future.  So we’re trying to solve both today’s problem and problemsthat otherwise will be forthcoming.  That’s why these actions are soimportant and so important in unison with each other.  We will end upnegotiating these things, rather than fighting over them, in my view.

（再次揭露重點——鋼鐵和鋁產品的關稅是為了現在，而針對知識產權的貿易行動是為了未來。美國人很清楚如果讓中國在科技領域迎頭趕上，結果是什么。但最后一句也值得玩味——美國會和對手談判協商這些事情，而不是fighting。）

THE PRESIDENT:  Mike Pence, would you like to saysomething?THE VICE PRESIDENT:  Thank you, Mr. President, and to allour honored guests.  Today’s action sends a clear message that thisPresident and our entire administration are determined to put American jobs andAmerican workers first.

（呵呵。）

The action the President will take today under Section 301 alsomakes it clear that the era of economic surrender is over.  The UnitedStates of America is taking targeted and focused action to protect not onlyAmerican jobs, but America’s technology, which will power and drive aninnovation economy for decades to come.

（副總統也來強調一下重點，這次行動壓根就不是為了就業，而是為了美國未來幾十年的領先地位。）

It is just one more step of a promise made and a promise kept byPresident Trump.THE PRESIDENT:  So we’ll sign right now.  I just wantto let everybody know, just for a second time, that we are in the midst of verymajor and very positive negotiations.  Positive for the United States and,actually, very positive for other countries also.

（特朗普最后一次強調，現在和對手還在談判中！而且是在一個非常有建設性的談判中?。?/p>

We have some of our great business leaders — and leaders, period— right behind me.  I may ask Marillyn — Lockheed — the leading woman’sbusiness executive in this country, according to many.  And we buybillions and billions of dollars’ worth of that beautiful F-35.  It’sstealth.  You cannot see it.  Is that correct?

（Marillyn是洛克希德馬丁——世界第一的武器制造商——的女老板。這個時候把她抬出來，無非是讓美國人意識到中國在軍事技術領域也可能會借助一些手段趕超美國，這樣他們危機感會更強。）

MS. HEWSON:  That’s correct, Mr. President.THE PRESIDENT:  Better be correct.  Right?MS. HEWSON:  Absolutely.THE PRESIDENT:  Marillyn, please say a few words.MS. HEWSON:  Well, thank you, Mr. President.  I wouldjust say that this is a very important moment for our country, in that we areaddressing what is a critical area for the aerospace and defense industry, andthat is protecting our intellectual property.  As has been expressed, thatis a threat to us if we have that stolen from our companies, because that isthe lifeblood of our companies.

（讓一個中國最不可能從非正常途徑獲得技術的行業作為代表，也是很諷刺了。）

And so, we very much welcome this action on the part of theTrump administration and the President of the United States.  Thank you.THE PRESIDENT:  Thank you, Marillyn.This is the first of many.  This is number one, but this isthe first of many.(The memorandum is signed.)Thank you all very much.  Marillyn.  Thank you verymuch.MS. HEWSON:  Thank you, Mr. President.Q    Mr. President, would you still like totestify to the Special Counsel, Robert Mueller?THE PRESIDENT:  I would like to.  I would like to.END12:58 P.M. EDTOK。

到這里全部看完了，結論也很清楚了，離貿易戰開展還有最后15天。最后強調幾個重點：

第一，美國和中國正在談判，此次簽備忘錄是一個重磅砝碼。因為美國商務部還會有15天的時間去確定關稅涉及的商品名單，現在還沒有開始征收關稅。

第二，科技和知識產權領域才是美國最重視的領域，制造業回流只是一個幌子，鋼鐵和鋁制品的關稅更是虛晃一槍。就像現在有的一些客觀分析里說的，是中國現在在技術領域的飛速發展讓美國產生了深深的戒備之心。九十年代那一輪的知識產權談判最終帶來了中國在文化領域的開放，那這一輪的談判又會帶來什么呢？

第三，靜觀未來15天的形勢變化，不到最后一刻不要隨便說貿易戰已經開打了。至少中國商務部目前的反制措施完全是針對“鋼鐵和鋁產品關稅”這件事的（商務部網站上的標題是《商務部新聞發言人就中方發布針對美國進口鋼鐵和鋁產品232措施的中止減讓產品清單發表談話》），根本沒有提到昨晚白宮發生的事情，這背后是留了余地的。

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